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Philosophy 105, Quiz #4 (on Chapters 10 and 11). Due: Noon, June 2, 2014 (Monday).
There are eleven (11) questions in this exam. You have two weeks+ to answer them. In the first section of the quiz, there is one essay question. The directions are provided below. This question is worth 25 points. The second section of the exam contains ten (10) multiple choice questions. Put the answer that you select as the best answer in bold (black). Each question is worth 7.5 points (x 10 = 75 points). Do not provide explanations for your answers; save your writing for the first question.
Section I = Question #1:
On Quiz #2, I [Dr. S.] noticed a pattern: There were many papers on which all the multiple choice questions were mostly answered correctly. Indeed, on these papers, the answers were perfect, 8 correct out of 8, or maybe 7 out of 8. Yet the same students who did this superb work on the multiple choice questions (7/8 or 8/8), did very bad work in providing explanations for their chosen answer. I was very surprised by this pattern. I had been thinking: a student will be able to select the correct multiple choice letter only if the student knew the material well enough to be able to explain how the student is able to select the right multiple choice letter. Otherwise, selecting the correct letter for the multiple choice questions would be merely the result of dumb luck, not the result of your knowledge of the material, but (again) the result of incredible success at a highly improbable game of roulette.
The task: There is a correlation to be explained – and to be explained in a plausible manner (ideally a truthful explanation, but at least one that is not refuted by obvious mathematical or factual considerations and one that does not contradict itself [look up the word “plausible”]), which allows me to understand why the correlation occurred. The two items in the correlation are: high scores on the multiple choice questions /<= and =>/ low scores on the explanations of the multiple choice answers. The tasks: (1) explain why the explanations on the quiz were bad even though the multiple choice questions were answered correctly; and (2) explain why you think your explanation really does explain the correlation.
Chapter 10 and 11 of our textbook discuss both correlations and explanations. There is also relevant material on correlations and explanations elsewhere in the textbook. Your answer to this question must show me that you read and understood and can accurately apply the course material from all these chapters to the issues raised by this question. Point to the exact passages and paragraphs in the book that you make use of in crafting your answer – supply not only the page number, but also the location of the passages on the pages. Be sure to use any specialized terminology or vocabulary that the textbook teaches you with respect to these issues.
Guidelines: Unless you are absolutely sure that your created explanations is perfectly true, you should offer several explanations – which, if they are consistent, may work together to explain the correlation. (This might be a good idea, just like a conclusion of an argument might be proved by several different sets of premises.) Make sure, though, that these different explanations are, each of them, plausible. Your entire answer-essay should be between 200 and 500 words. No more and no less than that. Remember than one Grading Rubric is the quality of your writing.
This question is worth 25 points. So, please do a good job.
Section II = Questions 2–11 (ten questions worth 7.5 points each)
2. In an inductive generalization, in order to achieve an error margin of plus or minus 3 percentage points at a confidence level of about 95 percent, what is the smallest random sample of subjects that researchers may use, as long as the population being studied is 10,000 or more?
A. 10 percent of the target/sample framing population
3. The sample of subjects in a study is random if
A. its members are chosen by a method the investigator does not know anything about.
B. its members are collectively representative of the population being studied.
C. every member of the whole population being studied has an equal chance of being selected for membership in the sample population of subjects.
D. its members do not know anything about each other.
E. the selected of the sample population is carried out by a double-blind process.
4. The goal of the randomization (randomness) of selecting members of the sample population of research subjects is:
A. to allow results to be confidently based on a smaller-than-usual sample subject population, given a specific confidence level.
B. to minimize the subjectivity of the study.
C. to achieve representativeness: the sample population of subjects (accurately) represents the whole population being studied.
D. to satisfy the experimental standards of funding organizations.
E. to eliminate the fallacies of hasty generalizations and anecdotal evidence.
5. The arithmetical relationship between the whole population being studied (i.e., about which conclusions will be drawn), on the one hand, and the sample population of subjects, is this:
A. the latter is always larger than the former.
B. the latter is always smaller than the former.
C. they are almost always the same size (have the same number of members).
D. their relative sizes cannot be known in advance.
E. their relative sizes are determined by a random method.
6. “They say Japanese carmakers put out the best cars in the world, all things considered. But that can’t be right — the Toyota I bought last year had to be returned to the shop five times.” This inductive argument commits primarily this fallacy:
A. biased generalization
B. hasty generalization
E. invalidity of a deductive argument
7. “Both Amsterdam and Philadelphia have well-educated and large populations. Both cities have effective mass transportation systems. Both cities are culturally sophisticated. Both cities have advanced medical delivery systems. Amsterdam legally allows prostitution and has no problems with it. Therefore if Philadelphia allowed prostitution, it would have no trouble with it.” The type of inductive argument presented here is:
C. one based on anecdotal evidence
D. excessively anthropological
E. insufficiently anthropomorphic
8. “Most men with prostate cancer have elevated blood levels of PSA. Therefore, most men with high blood levels of PSA have (or will eventually have) prostate cancer.” This inductive argument
A. commits the fallacy of illicit inductive conversion
B. commits the fallacy of illicit contraposition
C. is extremely strong
D. is a hasty generalization
E. commits the fallacy of illicit inversion
9. Which of the following claims should be added as a premise to this statistical inductive argument: “Mr. Sebastian is a professor. [I therefore conclude that] Mr. Sebastian is (probably) supportive.”
A. All professors are supportive.
B. All supportive people are professors.
C. Most supportive people are professors.
D. Most professors are supportive.
E. Most people who are not professors are not supportive.
10. Back in the 1970s, the sociologist Shere Hite mailed questionnaires or surveys to over 20,000 people, male and female, who lived in New York city and were listed in local telephone books that included addresses. The conclusions of her study were based on the surveys that were filled out and returned to her. This ________________ procedure creates a specific type of biased sample. (Fill in the blank.)
A. anecdotal evidential
B. analogical evidential
C. morally suspicious and maybe even illegal (violating the laws of privacy)
E. expensive and time-consuming
11. Harold is driving down the road from Charleston in Glenn County to Montclair in Salem County. As he crosses the border into Salem County he notices immediately that the road he is driving on is deteriorated, has more potholes than any street in Philadelphia. “I guess they don’t keep up their roads very well in Salem county,” he thinks to himself. The sample in this passage is
A. all or most of the roads in Glenn County.
B. all or most of the roads in Salem County.
C. the road he’s driving on when he has that thought driving into Salem County.
D. the road he just left as he crossed the border out of Glenn County.
E. barely large enough to draw reliable conclusions about the roads in Salem County.